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Ten of eleven major industries quit at or below their pre-COVID rate in July — mining and logging was the exception

The national quit rate fell to 1.9% in July, from 2.4% in July 2019, and the normalization reached almost every sector. Mining and logging alone ran higher — 2.6%, up from 1.9%, a 37% rise — while professional and business services fell the most, nearly halving to 1.8% from 3.3%.

The Facts

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) put the national quit rate — voluntary separations as a share of employment, seasonally adjusted — at 1.9% in July 2026. In July 2019, before the pandemic, it was 2.4%. We read the quit rate for all eleven major JOLTS industry supersectors in both months. Ten sat at or below their July 2019 level. One did not: mining and logging rose to 2.6% from 1.9%, a 0.7-point increase, up 37% — the only major industry where workers quit more often in July 2026 than before the pandemic. The full cross-section, July 2026 against July 2019, ordered by the current rate: - Leisure and hospitality: 3.4% vs. 4.8% - Trade, transportation, and utilities: 2.6% vs. 2.8% - Mining and logging: 2.6% vs. 1.9% - Other services: 2.2% vs. 2.5% - Construction: 1.9% vs. 2.3% - Professional and business services: 1.8% vs. 3.3% - Private education and health services: 1.8% vs. 2.0% - Manufacturing: 1.4% vs. 1.5% - Financial activities: 1.2% vs. 1.5% - Information: 1.0% vs. 1.5% - Government: 0.8% vs. 0.8% Among the ten at or below their July 2019 rate, the steepest decline was professional and business services — down 1.5 points, or 45.5%, the largest in the set on both the point and the percentage measure. Leisure and hospitality remains the highest-quit supersector at 3.4%, though its distance from the field has closed: it ran 2.4 points above the national rate in July 2019 and 1.5 points above it now, with trade/transportation/utilities and mining and logging just behind at 2.6%. Government returned exactly to its 2019 rate, 0.8% in both months. Within trade, the retail-trade sub-industry ran 3.1% in July 2026, down from 3.4%. The figures are the seasonally adjusted quit-rate series (JTS...QUR) for total nonfarm and the eleven supersectors — mining and logging (110099), construction (230000), manufacturing (300000), trade/transportation/utilities (400000), information (510000), financial activities (510099), professional and business services (540099), private education and health services (600000), leisure and hospitality (700000), other services (810000), and government (900000) — retrieved from the BLS API on September 9, 2026. July is held constant in both years to fix the pre-pandemic reference month.

The Analysis

The following is analysis, not fact. The national number and the cross-section tell slightly different stories. A quit rate falling half a point, 2.4% to 1.9%, reads as broad cooling. Read across all eleven supersectors at once, the cooling is nearly total — ten of eleven at or below their pre-pandemic mark — with a single sector pointing the other way. That exception is the part a single-industry glance would miss speculative. Mining and logging is the outlier worth naming. It is the one major industry where voluntary quitting now runs above its 2019 norm, 2.6% against 1.9%. What drives it is not in the series: a commodity-and-energy hiring cycle, wage competition for a relatively small workforce, or ordinary volatility in a small sector all fit, and the quit rate records the movement, not the cause speculative. The sector is small enough that its rate can move sharply from month to month, which is a caution as much as a finding. The sharpest normalization is not the one usually told. Leisure and hospitality — the face of the 2021 quitting surge, once above 5% — fell 1.4 points and is still the highest-quit sector. But the largest decline in the set belongs to professional and business services, down 1.5 points to 1.8%, a category that includes temporary-help and staffing, where churn is structurally high and where a return toward the pre-pandemic baseline shows up as a large move speculative. The cross-section's real content is that "quits fell everywhere" is close but wrong: quits fell almost everywhere, and the one place they rose is the tell.

Room for Disagreement

A quit rate at or below its pre-pandemic level does not by itself signal that workers are content. Quits are read alongside job openings: thinner openings can reduce workers' outside options and therefore may contribute to lower quitting modeled. JOLTS openings have fallen from their 2022 peak, so part of the broad decline is consistent with reduced worker leverage rather than settled satisfaction modeled. The mining-and-logging rise cuts the other way and carries its own caveat: it is one month, one relatively small supersector off a low base, and JOLTS estimates are revised — an annual benchmark can narrow, widen, or unwind a single-month gap this size.

The View From

From the headline quit rate alone, July looks like uniform late-cycle cooling: 1.9%, down from 2.4%, a labor market where fewer people are walking. Set the eleven industries beside it and the same month reads as near-uniform normalization with one genuine exception — mining and logging, the lone sector quitting more than before 2020. The reassuring aggregate and the one sector moving against it are the same month, counted whole rather than in the single line most readers see.

Notable

How this was made. Models: Sonnet 4.6 (US pod) · Onett rebuild. Publisher of Record: Unruly Labs LP. Published September 10, 2026.

Confidence. Every factual claim here is verified against a cited primary source. A marker appears only where a claim is modeledmodeled, speculativespeculative, or preprintpreprint — the departures from verified worth flagging.

Sources. BLS JOLTS API v2 — quit rate by industry (seasonally adjusted), series JTS...QUR, total nonfarm + 11 supersectors, 2019 and 2026 (retrieved 2026-09-09) · BLS JOLTS industry code map (jt.industry) — authoritative code-to-label mapping for the supersector series (retrieved 2026-09-09) · FRED JTSQUR — seasonally adjusted total nonfarm quit rate, December 2000 to July 2026 (retrieved 2026-09-09)