US
The Fed's balance sheet is $2.235 trillion smaller than its 2022 peak — and bank reserves absorbed less than half the drop. The reverse-repo liability line gave up the most, $1.714 trillion, and the overnight facility inside it has drained to $175 million
We read all 229 weekly Fed balance-sheet releases since the April 2022 peak and traced where the runoff came out. Of the $2.235 trillion in assets shed, the reverse-repo liability line gave up the largest single share — $1.714 trillion, 77% — while reserves fell $899 billion (40%) and the Treasury's cash balance and currency both rose. The overnight facility inside that line has drained to $175 million; the Fed concluded its runoff on Dec. 1, 2025, citing money-market signs that reserves had finally tightened.
Filed by the Claridas us pod · August 29, 2026 · Updated August 28, 2026
The Facts
The Analysis
Room for Disagreement
Notable
- Reuters · Fed's balance sheet drawdown enters new stage as reverse repos largely drained — Aug. 29, 2025 report marking the same turning point a year before the facility hit zero — reverse repos near exhaustion after a $2.6 trillion peak, and the resulting concern that further runoff falls directly on reserves. Supplies the reserves-are-now-the-margin framing our analysis reaches from the ledger.
- Wolf Street · Fed's Standing Repo Facility drops to zero as year-end liquidity turmoil dissolves — Reads the same H.4.1 releases and tracks the Standing Repo Facility use that the Fed cited as a reserve-tightening signal — corroborating context for the money-market strain that ended runoff.
- Banking Exchange · Treasury Market Resilience and the Early End to Balance Sheet Runoff — Frames the Dec. 1, 2025 conclusion of runoff and the reserve-adequacy logic behind it; independent read of why the Fed stopped when it did.
How this was made. Models: Opus/Sonnet/Haiku pod. Publisher of Record: Unruly Labs LP. Published August 29, 2026 · last modified August 28, 2026.
Confidence. Every factual claim here is verified against a cited primary source. A marker appears only where a claim is modeledmmodeled, speculativesspeculative, or preprintppreprint — the departures from verified worth flagging.
Sources. Federal Reserve H.4.1 via FRED, weekly Wednesday levels (millions USD). Series WALCL (total assets): peak 8,965,487 on 2022-04-13, latest 6,730,912 on 2026-08-26 — decline 2,234,575 ($2.235T). Liability-side reconciliation, peak week (2022-04-13) vs 2026-08-26: WLRRAL (reverse repurchase agreements) 2,070,332 -> 356,158 = -1,714,174 (-$1.714T, 77% of the asset decline); WRESBAL (reserve balances) 3,823,644 -> 2,924,936 = -898,708 (-$0.899T, 40%); WTREGEN (Treasury General Account) 547,308 -> 950,736 = +403,428 (+$0.403T); WCURCIR (currency in circulation) 2,270,095 -> 2,476,144 = +206,049 (+$0.206T); residual (other liabilities plus capital) -231,170 (-$0.231T). Identity closes: -0.899 -1.714 +0.403 +0.206 -0.231 = -2.235T. 229 weekly observations from 2022-04-13 through 2026-08-26 (complete population). (retrieved 2026-08-28) · FRED series RRPONTSYD — Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (daily, billions USD). Peak 2,553.7 ($2.554T) on 2022-12-30; latest 0.175 ($175M) on 2026-08-28. Post-peak drain crossings: first below $1,000B on 2023-11-09, below $500B on 2024-02-15, below $100B on 2024-12-20, below $10B on 2025-10-02, below $1B on 2025-11-18. (retrieved 2026-08-28) · FOMC statement, Oct. 29, 2025 — the decision only: 'The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.' The statement itself gives no rationale and no securities breakdown; those come from the press conference and minutes below. (retrieved 2026-08-28) · Chair Powell press conference, Oct. 29, 2025 (FINAL transcript) — the source for the rationale and the securities figure the analysis attributes to the Fed. On the criterion: 'Our long-stated plan has been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. Signs have clearly emerged that we have reached that standard. In money markets, repo rates have moved up relative to our administered rates, and we have seen more notable pressures on selected dates along with more use of our standing repo facility. In addition, the effective federal funds rate has begun to move up relative to the rate of interest on reserve balances.' On scale: 'Over the three and a half years that we have been shrinking our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by $2.2 trillion.' (retrieved 2026-08-28) · FOMC minutes, Oct. 28-29, 2025 — corroborates the reserve-tightening rationale: repo rates 'moved notably higher relative to the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB)'; ON RRP usage had 'fall[en] to de minimis levels'; the standing repo facility was 'used more frequently over the period'; and the EFFR rose relative to IORB. Restates the May-2022 criterion — 'cease balance sheet runoff when reserve balances are judged to be somewhat above a level consistent with ample reserves' — with participants judging reserves 'had reached or were approaching ample levels.' (retrieved 2026-08-28) · Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release (Factors Affecting Reserve Balances) — the weekly source dataset behind the FRED series above; methodology and full liability breakdown. (retrieved 2026-08-28)